<p>在昨天的课上,我们试图向一位朋友解释<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem" rel="noreferrer">Monty Hall problem</a>,最后我们用Python编写了代码,以证明如果你总是交换,你会赢2/3次。我们想到了这个:</p>
<pre><code>import random as r
#iterations = int(raw_input("How many iterations? >> "))
iterations = 100000
doors = ["goat", "goat", "car"]
wins = 0.0
losses = 0.0
for i in range(iterations):
n = r.randrange(0,3)
choice = doors[n]
if n == 0:
#print "You chose door 1."
#print "Monty opens door 2. There is a goat behind this door."
#print "You swapped to door 3."
wins += 1
#print "You won a " + doors[2] + "\n"
elif n == 1:
#print "You chose door 2."
#print "Monty opens door 1. There is a goat behind this door."
#print "You swapped to door 3."
wins += 1
#print "You won a " + doors[2] + "\n"
elif n == 2:
#print "You chose door 3."
#print "Monty opens door 2. There is a goat behind this door."
#print "You swapped to door 1."
losses += 1
#print "You won a " + doors[0] + "\n"
else:
print "You screwed up"
percentage = (wins/iterations) * 100
print "Wins: " + str(wins)
print "Losses: " + str(losses)
print "You won " + str(percentage) + "% of the time"
</code></pre>
<p>我的朋友认为这是一个很好的解决方法(也是一个很好的模拟),但我有我的怀疑和担心。它真的足够随机吗?</p>
<p>我的问题是所有的选择都是硬编码的。</p>
<p><strong>这是对蒙蒂霍尔问题的好的还是坏的“模拟”?怎么会?</strong></p>
<p><strong>你能想出一个更好的版本吗?</strong></p>