<p>霍尔特·温特斯的密码是错误的。您可以在下面的链接中查看,该链接使用R代码计算霍尔特·温特斯</p>
<p><a href="http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_exponentialsmoothing.wasp#output" rel="nofollow">http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_exponentialsmoothing.wasp#output</a></p>
<p>输入下面的数据并在链接中设置<code>season period at 4</code>、<code>Type of Exponential Smoothing to Triple</code>、<code>Type of seasonality to multiplicative</code></p>
<pre><code>146
96
59
133
192
127
79
186
272
155
98
219
</code></pre>
<p>它将返回alpha,beta和gamma的参数</p>
^{pr2}$
<p>结果呢</p>
<pre><code>t Observed Fitted Residuals
5 192 170.088248700704 21.9117512992958
6 127 122.981857107346 4.01814289265398
7 79 75.9008222744013 3.09917772559865
8 186 172.139757560624 13.8602424393755
9 272 272.260398525039 -0.260398525038966
10 155 173.023900179977 -18.0239001799769
11 98 95.2888315311983 2.71116846880174
12 219 213.920670513984 5.07932948601567
</code></pre>
<p>将alpha、beta和gamma插入python代码,可以得到:</p>
<pre><code>holtwinters(y, 0.735716596454859, 0.0382359201508119, 1,4)
[ 158.3686 113.11 73.8393 175.5253 262.0823 176.5653 112.4055
268.6787 401.3833 243.3259 150.7145 343.6221]
</code></pre>
<p>你可以看出这是错误的。但是R模型使用了误差修正,所以它也将取决于如何设置初始点。在</p>